High moisture is available across the area, which is leading to scattered thunderstorm development through this afternoon and evening. A weak surface boundary is sliding into the area from the north, and this boundary is serving as a surface trigger to allow these storms to flourish. Storms so far have contained heavy rainfall, frequent cloud-to-ground lightning, and gusty winds. That could continue through the evening hours, as pieces of energy continue to come in from the north. This type of pattern, with storms coming from the north and northeast, is not unusual for July in Acadiana, but it can sometimes lead to strong thunderstorm activity. For this reason, we’ll have to watch for storms containing high winds and small hail. Chances of that happening are low, but we’ll continue to monitor radar through the evening. Storms should begin to taper off later tonight as storms lose the daytime heating.
The surface boundary will sit right over the area for tomorrow, so once surface heating destabilizes the atmosphere, it should not be hard for storms to develop. For that reason, I’m going with rain coverage of about 50-60% for your Sunday. Like today, a storm or two could misbehave, so we will be watching radar trends. Prime time to see storms will be both this evening and through tomorrow afternoon.
Locally heavy rainfall could be possible through Sunday, with some isolated areas picking up 1-2 inches of rainfall.
Higher than normal rain chances will continue through much of next week, as there is no definitive high pressure to come in and shut down afternoon storms.