Active tropics continue with 3 named systems ongoing

The tropics have remained active through much of September and this week will be no different.


Hurricane Jose is still churning across the Atlantic. The storm acquired its name on September 5th, which means it has been a named system for 11 days. We could be dealing with Jose through the end of next week! It is still a category one hurricane and slight strengthening could be possible through the next 12-24 hours. Thereafter, the storm should slowly begin to weaken due to increased shear. The storm is forecast to become a tropical storm again by next Tuesday. It should continue to move northward along with western edge of a ridge of high pressure to its east. On its forecast track, Jose would have minimal impacts for the Outer Banks and New England, but dangerous rip currents could be possible along coastal areas of New England and the mid-Atlantic through the weekend. Slight deviations in track, however, could change the potential impacts for the mid-Atlantic and New England heading through the early portions of next week. For this reason, Jose will continue to be tracked closely as it makes its move to the north.


Tropical Storm Maria has formed today east of the Lesser Antilles islands. This storm is looking healthy on visible satellite and strengthening will be possible through the next few days. Unfortunately, this looks like it could be another very dangerous hurricane for parts of the Lesser Antilles, U.S. and British Virgin islands, and Puerto Rico. These are some of the same areas that have been hit hard by both Irma and Jose. It appears the dreadful hurricane season will continue for the eastern parts of the Caribbean sea and the Caribbean islands. Maria is forecast to strengthen into a major hurricane early next week as it moves towards Hispaniola. Thereafter, the forecast is beyond 6 days and the forecast track remains uncertain. Most early model guidance takes the storm northward, possibly east of the United States. One concerning aspect is that a slight weakness in the ridge, left by Jose, causes the storm to lift northward later in the forecast period. Other than that slight weakness, however, a ridge of high pressure looks to dominate the east coast during this time period. Remember, that ridges can steer storms further westward. Although most models take it, at the very least, east of the Gulf of Mexico at this time, I would still keep a close eye on this storm as models can change this early in the game. As it stands right now, it appears this system may not pose a huge risk to the Gulf though, so do not stress about it too much. Of course, we will alert you promptly if that thinking changes.


Finally, we have Tropical Storm Lee out in the open waters of the eastern Atlantic. This storm should get affected by wind shear and should begin to weaken throughout the next few days. This storm should not pose a significant risk to any land areas through its lifetime.

~Meteorologist Trevor Sonnier

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