Rain chances increasing by the weekend, heavy rain possible

Our break from low humidity will be ending through the next few days as high pressure moves east of the area. This will give us more of a southeasterly flow, which will help gulf moisture come back into the area. Meanwhile, a low pressure area will begin to develop across the Rockies, swinging a cold front into the lower-plains by tomorrow. A chance for severe weather will be in the mix across the lower-plains tomorrow in states such as Texas and Oklahoma.

This same system will begin to move into the area by Saturday. Both atmospheric moisture and lift will begin to increase across the area Saturday afternoon, and with the help of daytime destabilization, thunderstorms should begin to develop. These will mainly be what we call “streamer” showers, meaning they’ll be moving quickly in an area of fast flow aloft. Because of this, heavier rainfall amounts and/or flash flooding is not expected Saturday.

The heaviest rain is not expected until Sunday morning/early afternoon when the cold front will be moving through the area. Inflow of warm, moist air into the main storm looks rather weak, meaning severe weather chances look rather low at this time. A rogue storm or two could contain gusty winds though, so we will be radar watching on Sunday. Atmospheric moisture will be on the high side, so it appears 1-2 inches of rain could be possible in the Saturday through Sunday time frame. Overall, the storm should be progressing pretty quickly and the ground has been rather dry, so flooding is not anticipated. Rainfall looks to be ending from west-to-east by Sunday evening.

Behind this system, a cooler airmass will once again work into the area. Monday and Tuesday are shaping up to be really nice days with mostly sunny skies and highs in the 70s.

A reinforcing blast of cooler air will arrive by Wednesday. In fact, if current models are to be believed, this blast could be even cooler than the one we saw earlier this week. The GFS model is showing highs in the low 70s Wednesday and Thursday with morning starts in the mid-upper 40s! That’s getting into “chilly” territory. Another sign that a pattern change may be underway, which will end our anomalously warm Fall across the area.

~Meteorologist Trevor Sonnier

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