Storms have impacted the area today with some heavy rainfall totals across eastern parts of Acadiana. Some areas of St. Martin and Iberia parishes saw anywhere from 1-3 inches. More storms will continue to develop overnight tonight, but eventually become more isolated in nature after midnight.
Heading through tomorrow morning, a southeast wind is expected. Warm and muggy conditions can be expected with the possibility of some patchy fog across the area during the early morning hours. Storm coverage will begin to increase through the morning hours with a complex of storms developing across eastern Texas early in the morning and moving across Acadiana through the late morning and early afternoon hours. Storms could contain heavy rainfall, frequent lightning, and gusty winds. Severe weather chances look rather low across the area as the influx of warm air and moisture is limited, but an isolated strong storm or two cannot be ruled out, possibly producing strong wind gusts. This is because of a pocket of dry air aloft, which can sometimes bring stronger winds down to the surface. Overall, an additional 1-2 inches of rain could be possible on top of what has already fallen today.
As the front moves through the area, breezy northwest winds can be expected immediately behind the front. Northwest winds could gust as high as 30 mph tomorrow afternoon behind the front. Temperatures may actually drop a few degrees through the afternoon hours, with the temperature drop expected to continue through the evening and nighttime hours.
Sunny skies are expected through much of next week with cooler temperatures as well. Highs will be in the mid-70s Monday and Tuesday, with morning starts in the 50s. A cooler blast of air will arrive by Wednesday, which could push temperatures down into the mid-upper 40s by Wednesday and Thursday morning! Afternoon temperatures on Wednesday may struggle to reach the low 70s.
A brief warming trend is expected by Thursday and Friday before an even colder airmass arrives through next weekend. Most global models are unanimous in bringing a strong high pressure down from the upper-plains by next Saturday and Sunday. The GFS model has highs in the 60s by next Saturday and a morning start in the upper 30s by next Sunday! European model is about 12-18 hours later with the front, but also has temperatures in the 60s by Sunday with a morning start in the upper 30s by the following Monday. If these models were to verify, it would definitely be the strongest front we’ve seen so far this Fall season.
~Meteorologist Trevor Sonnier