Latest models show snow flurries possible tonight, streak of temperatures at or below freezing continues (40+ hours)

A deck of low clouds has made the temperature forecast difficult the past few days. If you may remember, temperatures dropped below freezing around 9pm New Years Eve. We had the possibility of getting above the 32-degree mark yesterday, but low clouds kept our high around 32 degrees. After dropping into the low 20s last night, we were expected to be below freezing until this afternoon, when temperatures were expected to get into the mid-upper 30s. With a deck of low clouds hanging over the area, plus precipitation across the northern Gulf of Mexico, that did not happen here in Lafayette. In fact, recent guidance shows we may not get above freezing again today. This means if we have to wait until tomorrow afternoon to get above freezing, that puts Lafayette at or below freezing for some 60 hours, which only happens about once every few decades around here!

Models show another very cold night with overnight lows dipping down into the low 20s. Similar to the past few days, the cloud pattern will have much to do with how low of a temperature we achieve. Interestingly enough, a weak disturbance will be moving across the area tonight as well. While most models have shown this disturbance coming in dry, with no precipitation, a few high-resolution models are starting to get on board with the possibility of a brief window for some snow flurries later tonight. This is one model run, however, and may be an outlier. However, some other models have jumped on board showing some light snow somewhere across southeastern Texas or coastal Louisiana later tonight. Because of this trend, I have added about a 10-20% chance for some snow flurries this evening. Little to no accumulation is expected, however, as this disturbance will be moving quickly across the area.

We will most likely get above freezing under mostly sunny skies tomorrow, with highs reaching the upper 30s to lower 40s. A more substantial warming trend is expected by the weekend, but another cold front could be possible early next week.

~Meteorologist Trevor Sonnier

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